El Niño southern oscillation forecast update
February 17, 2024
The National Weather Service's climate prediction center has published a new update:
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diagnostic discussion
Figure 3 from that update is shown at right. The most recent subsurface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific Ocean are back to near zero, after having been above average every month since March 2023.
Here's the synopsis of the report: "A transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (79% chance), with increasing odds of La Niña developing…