Forecast for a weak La Niña

The latest La Niña forecast came out last week from the National Weather Service's (USA) climate prediction center.

The probability of La Niña occurring is going down, from 71% chance in the previous forecast to 60% in the current one. Here's the current forecast:

As a result of the warmer predictions and the recent weakening of equatorial trade winds, the team still favors a weak event, but has lowered the chances of La Niña. A weaker La Niña implies that…