Very strong El Niño: 63% chance

That's the current forecast from the NOAA.

El Niño conditions are present and are expected to strengthen over the upcoming months. The ENSO discussion from this week includes this statement: "There is a 63% chance of a very strong El Niño during November-January that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950. Even very strong El Niño events do not lead to the expected impact everywhere, but stronger events can more significantly…